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Sunday, 23 November 2008

Electoral Fun & Games in Nicaragua

'Let the games begin!' Nothing new since I last visited Nicaragua in 2006. In the aftermath of the 2008 municipal elections in Nicaragua on November 9th, the electoral process is no different from usual: the oposition demanding recounts and annulments, with Daniel Ortega and his party Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional/FSLN overruling every claim. FSLN controls the supreme electorate council, Consejo Supremo Electoral/CSE by three quarters of the members, so they are not really stopping anything.

One to make a claim for a recount is Eduardo Montealegre from Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense/ALN in union with Partido Liberal Constitucionalista/PLC, because polls held him a winner of the election. At the 2006 Presidential Election in Nicaragua Montealegre had started his own party of Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense/ALN, and gained 29 percent of the votes, compared to Daniel Ortega/FSLN's 38 percent. Even flying by the traditional Liberal party of PLC. Not bad for a newcomer. Especially not when at the same time there were widespread rumours everywhere in the streets of Nicaragua of FSLN party members bribing 14 year-olds to receive registration forms to vote (the electoral age in Nicaragua is 16). You see, 14 year-olds haven't experienced the 80'ies when Daniel Ortega and FSLN ruled the first time around, so they make a perfect electorate!

This time Eduardo Montealegre allied himself with PLC, but according to the published end result he was beaten in his quest to become mayor of Managua. By around five percent to Alexis Argüello/FSLN, with 46 to a little over 51 percent. Most Nicaraguan presidents started out as mayors in the capital of Managua, so it is not entirely unimportant who wins there. An angry debate is currently running in the once in the 80'ies censored newspaper La Prensa's blog about this 'Alexis' from FSLN. Montealegre was claiming a recount or an annulment through the electoral laws. But as of yesterday, Daniel Ortega wanted to legitimize the electorate result by Presidential decree. Now the debate goes on. Today's paradox is, that there are two conflicting statements at play here: on one hand Daniel Ortega claims that a law cannot annul an election, but on the other he also claims legitimization of it through a law - or decree.

At the presidential election in 2006 Daniel Ortega and FSLN was announced winners after they had stopped counting at 91-92 percent reviewed votes. I was there in the weeks after that election, and the local news - La Prensa for one - announced that fraud had been discovered. Nobody really did too much about it, but a few posts in the parliament were swapped. Through the effort of the internationally funded Ética y Transparencia (the Transparency International partner in Nicaragua) - but no big fuss was made about it internationally. In Nicaragua - the logic seems to be - things are good if the election happens at all, without too much difficulty. And with an electoral turn out close to 70 percent, everybody is happy.

This time around Etica y Transparencia is more quiet. I just talked to Roberto A. Courtney, Executive Director of Etica Y Transparencia, and he explained:
'According to our count, Montealegre won by five percent in Managua. It's the least transparent election anywhere in fifty years. There have been frauds in 30-50 of the municipalities.'

There are 153 municipalities in Nicaragua. But according to Courtney a recount would be impossible or pointless, since CSE is controlled by FSLN. He even claims to have been threatened by government officials himself. Hmmm. It doesn't seem to be that difficult to run a democracy - just make a decree!

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